期刊
VIRUSES-BASEL
卷 14, 期 10, 页码 -出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/v14102232
关键词
SARS-CoV-2; transmissibility; ambient temperature; mobility patterns; epidemics
类别
资金
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) [22J23183]
- Community Medical Research Grant of the Niigata City Medical Association [GC03220213]
- Tsukada Medical Research Grant
- Japan Initiative for Global Research Network on Infectious Diseases (J-GRID) by the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (AMED) [15fm0108009h0001-21wm0125005h0002]
- KAKENHI by the JSPS [21K10414]
- Health and Labor Sciences Research Grants, Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Japan [H30-ShinkougyouseiShitei-002, H30-Shinkougyousei-Shitei-004]
- Niigata Prefecture Coronavirus Infectious Disease Control Research and Human Resources Development Support Fund
The study assessed the effects of ambient temperature and mobility patterns on COVID-19 transmission in Japan, finding a higher risk of transmission associated with colder temperatures and higher retail and recreation mobility. These findings provide valuable insights for public health policies.
We assess the effects of ambient temperature and mobility patterns on the transmissibility of COVID-19 during the epidemiological years of the pandemic in Japan. The prefecture-specific daily time-series of confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, meteorological variables, levels of retail and recreation mobility (e.g., activities, going to restaurants, cafes, and shopping centers), and the number of vaccinations were collected for six prefectures in Japan from 1 May 2020 to 31 March 2022. We combined standard time-series generalized additive models (GAMs) with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to determine the exposure-lag-response association between the time-varying effective reproductive number (R-t), ambient temperature, and retail and recreation mobility, while controlling for a wide range of potential confounders. Utilizing a statistical model, the first distribution of the mean ambient temperature (i.e., -4.9 degrees C) was associated with an 11.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.9-17.7%) increase in R-t compared to the optimum ambient temperature (i.e., 18.5 degrees C). A retail and recreation mobility of 10.0% (99th percentile) was associated with a 19.6% (95% CI: 12.6-27.1%) increase in R-t over the optimal level (i.e., -16.0%). Our findings provide a better understanding of how ambient temperature and mobility patterns shape severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. These findings provide valuable epidemiological insights for public health policies in controlling disease transmission.
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