4.7 Article

Predicted impacts of climate change on wild and commercial berry habitats will have food security, conservation and agricultural implications

期刊

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
卷 845, 期 -, 页码 -

出版社

ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157341

关键词

Vaccinium; Cranberry; Climate change; Maxent; Lingonberry; Bilberry

资金

  1. Ocean Spray Cranberries Ltd.
  2. Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada [RGPIN-2018-03883]
  3. Explorer's Club Mamont Scholar Grant
  4. Alpine Club of Canada Environment Fund
  5. Natural Resources Canada Polar Continental Shelf Program

向作者/读者索取更多资源

Climate change will have a critical impact on berry cultivation in Canada. Predicting the impact of climate change on habitat suitability of different berry species can help mitigate the impacts on ecosystems and food security. Commercial cranberry farms may need new varieties to adapt to the changing climate.
Climate change is now a reality and is altering ecosystems, with Canada experiencing 2-4 times the global average rate of warming. This will have a critical impact on berry cultivation and horticulture. Enhancing our understanding of how wild and cultivated berries will perform under changing climates will be essential to mitigating impacts on ecosystems, culture and food security. Our objective was to predict the impact of climate change on habitat suitability of four berry producing Vaccinium species: two species with primarily northern distributions (V. uliginosum, V. vitis-idaea), one species with a primarily southern distribution (V. oxycoccos), and the commercially cultivated V. macrocarpon. We used the maximum entropy (Maxent) model and the CMIP6 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) 126 and 585 projected to 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. Wild species showed a uniform northward progression and expansion of suitable habitat. Our modeling predicts that suitable growing regions for commercial cranberries are also likely to shift with some farms becoming unsuitable for the current varieties and other regions becoming more suitable for cranberry farms. Both V. macrocarpon and V. oxycoccos showed a high dependence on precipitation-associated variables. Vaccinium vitis-idaea and V. uliginosum had a greater number of variables with smaller contributions which may improve their resilience to individual climactic events. Future competition between commercial cranberry farms and wild berries in protected areas could lead to conflicts between agriculture and conservation priorities. New varieties of commercial berries are required to maintain current commercial berry farms.

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