A climate risk analysis of Earth's forests in the 21st century

Earth's forests harbor extensive biodiversity and are currently a major carbon sink. Forest conservation and restoration can help mitigate climate change; however, climate change could fundamentally imperil forests in many regions and undermine their ability to provide such mitigation. The extent of climate risks facing forests has not been synthesized globally nor have different approaches to quantifying forest climate risks been systematically compared. We combine outputs from multiple mechanistic and empirical approaches to modeling carbon, biodiversity, and disturbance risks to conduct a synthetic climate risk analysis for Earth's forests in the 21st century. Despite large uncertainty in most regions we find that some forests are consistently at higher risk, including southern boreal forests and those in western North America and parts of the Amazon.

Automated summary

Forests on Earth are crucial for mitigating climate change and supporting biodiversity, but they are also at risk from climate change. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of climate risks for forests worldwide, using multiple approaches to model carbon, biodiversity, and disturbance risks. The findings highlight higher risks for certain forests, including southern boreal forests and those in western North America and parts of the Amazon.