4.8 Review

A review of recent studies on wind resource projections under climate change

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Current and future potential of solar and wind energy over Africa using the RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE ensemble

Windmanagda Sawadogo et al.

Summary: This study evaluates the impact of climate change on solar and wind energy potential in Africa, finding a general decrease in solar potential while concentrated solar power output increases, and wind power density shows an increasing trend. The RCP2.6 emission scenario is more favorable for the implementation of renewable energy in Africa compared to RCP8.5.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2021)

Article Environmental Sciences

Future changes in wind energy potential over China using RegCM4 under RCP emission scenarios

Wu Jia et al.

Summary: Simulation projections indicate a decreasing trend in wind energy potential in China under various emission scenarios, with significant changes in autumn and winter, showing an increase in the south and a decrease in the northwest and southwest regions. Moreover, the 'very abundant' and 'abundant' wind energy in northern China and low-speed wind energy in South China are projected to decrease over the course of the 21st century.

ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH (2021)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The present and future offshore wind resource in the Southwestern African region

Daniela C. A. Lima et al.

Summary: The offshore wind resources in the Southwestern African region are projected to change in the future climate conditions. Under the weaker climate mitigation scenario, an increase in offshore wind resources is expected along Namibia and South African western coasts, while a decrease is projected along Angola's coasts. Smaller but similar changes are projected under the stronger climate mitigation scenario.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2021)

Article Energy & Fuels

A global assessment of extreme wind speeds for wind energy applications

Sara C. Pryor et al.

Summary: This study presents a global investigation of extreme wind speeds using different statistical approaches, providing robust estimates of wind resource for cost-effective expansion of the wind energy industry. The study shows that estimates of U-50 derived from ERA5 output using four different methods are within an average of 9-13% of those from point measurements. The reference wind speed (U-ref) derived from wind turbine design standards is generally a conservative estimate of U-50 and may lead to over-engineering of wind turbines and excess capital expenditures, especially after applying additional safety factors.

NATURE ENERGY (2021)

Article Thermodynamics

Future projections of offshore wind energy resources in China using CMIP6 simulations and a deep learning-based downscaling method

Shuangyi Zhang et al.

Summary: This study investigates future offshore wind energy resources in China using CMIP6 simulation results and a new downscaling method. The new method significantly reduces biases, improves spatial consistency, and projects changes in wind speed over Chinese seas for the middle and end of the 21st Century under different scenarios.

ENERGY (2021)

Article Environmental Sciences

Projected changes in wind speed and wind energy potential over West Africa in CMIP6 models

Akintomide Afolayan Akinsanola et al.

Summary: This study evaluates the impact of climate change on wind power density (WPD) over West Africa using the CMIP6 models, finding a significant projected increase in WPD over the Guinea coast subregion and a projected decrease over the Sahel subregion. The CMIP6 EnsMean performs better than most individual models at capturing the near-surface wind speed over the region.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2021)

Article Environmental Sciences

Projected changes in wind power potential over China and India in high resolution climate models

Peter Sherman et al.

Summary: As more countries commit to emissions reductions to curb climate change, decarbonization of the electricity sector becomes crucial. Wind and solar power will play a major role in this transition, despite a slight decrease in available resources, there is enormous potential for expansion.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2021)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Wind energy resource over Europe under CMIP6 future climate projections: What changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6

D. Carvalho et al.

Summary: The future European wind resource is projected to decrease in most areas according to the latest climate scenarios of CMIP6. Only a few localized areas in eastern Ukraine and Turkey may see an increase. There is significant uncertainty in changes in wind resource variability, with some areas projected to have an increase. Unlike CMIP5, CMIP6 forecasts show a stronger decline in wind resource for practically all of Europe by the end of the century, especially in some areas like northern Norway, Poland, and western Ukraine.

RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS (2021)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Assessing climate change impacts on wind characteristics in Greece through high resolution regional climate modelling

Theodoros Katopodis et al.

Summary: This study assessed the projected climatic changes in wind characteristics in Greece using the WRF model, finding significant increases in mean wind speeds and wind energy density. The variations in different parameters across regions indicate that Greece will be affected by climate change, especially in the north and central-western Aegean region and Crete.

RENEWABLE ENERGY (2021)

Article Thermodynamics

Wind resource evolution in Europe under different scenarios of climate change characterised by the novel Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

A. Martinez et al.

Summary: The study examined the evolution of wind energy resources under different climate change scenarios in Europe, predicting significant reductions in wind power density in Northern Continental Europe and the Central Mediterranean, while an increase is projected in West Finland. The overall trend in other regions depends on the SSP scenario, with considerable growth in Central Europe in the intermediate emissions scenario but some reduction in the highest emissions scenario.

ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT (2021)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Impact of Climate Change on Wind and Photovoltaic Energy Resources in the Canary Islands and Adjacent Regions

Claudia Gutierrez et al.

Summary: The study focuses on the variability and complementarity of wind and photovoltaic resources in the Canary Islands and surrounding areas, evaluating the impact of renewable energy changes on future climate through the analysis of energy droughts.

SUSTAINABILITY (2021)

Article Thermodynamics

Wind power potential and intermittency issues in the context of climate change

Yiling Cai et al.

Summary: Wind power has developed rapidly due to its potential for renewable energy and decreasing installation costs. However, the high temporal variability of wind power poses challenges for balancing electricity supply and demand. Analyzing wind power variability and spatial aggregation is necessary, particularly in the context of climate change. Model biases in simulated winds must be corrected for accurate evaluation of wind power potential.

ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT (2021)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Climate change impacts on the future offshore wind energy resource in China

X. Costoya et al.

Summary: The Chinese offshore wind energy sector is growing rapidly, with the country expected to become the global leader in installed wind energy capacity. Future projections show varying trends in wind power density depending on the season, and most of the Chinese coastal area is classified as having good or excellent wind energy resources.

RENEWABLE ENERGY (2021)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Towards a Future Scenario for Offshore Wind Energy in Chile: Breaking the Paradigm

Cristian Mattar et al.

Summary: Offshore wind energy remains a potential candidate for meeting Chile's electricity consumption needs, but there are existing obstacles such as legal frameworks and costs. Economic assessment of a 608 MW offshore wind project based on climate projections show that future climate scenarios do not affect the project's economic viability.

SUSTAINABILITY (2021)

Article Energy & Fuels

Future changes in wind energy resource over the Northwest Passage based on the CMIP6 climate projections

Heng Qian et al.

Summary: The preferential use of renewable energy sources, such as wind power, has been proposed as an effective strategy in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, wind energy resources are vulnerable to climate change, with the future showing a decrease in the south and an increase in the north. By the end of the 21st century, without interventions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, the northern region's wind energy resources would significantly increase but also face greater variability and challenges in development.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENERGY RESEARCH (2021)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Future projections of the near-surface wind speed over eastern China based on CMIP5 datasets

Jinlin Zha et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2020)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading

Zeke Hausfather et al.

NATURE (2020)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Impacts of climate change on wind energy power - Four wind farms in Spain

Kepa Solaun et al.

RENEWABLE ENERGY (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The influence of future climate change on wind energy potential in the Republic of Serbia

Zorica Podrascanin et al.

THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY (2020)

Article Thermodynamics

Integration of small-scale surface properties in a new high resolution global wind speed model

Christopher Jung et al.

ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT (2020)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

An Ensemble Framework to Investigate Wind Energy Sustainability Considering Climate Change Impacts

Shengjin Wang et al.

SUSTAINABILITY (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The ERA5 global reanalysis

Hans Hersbach et al.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2020)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Impacts of climate change on wind resources over North America based on NA-CORDEX

Liang Chen

RENEWABLE ENERGY (2020)

Article Environmental Sciences

Future Projections for Wind, Wind Shear and Helicity in the Iberian Peninsula

Joana Martins et al.

ATMOSPHERE (2020)

Article Thermodynamics

Introducing a new approach for wind energy potential assessment under climate change at the wind turbine scale

Christopher Jung et al.

ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Evaluation and Projection of Surface Wind Speed Over China Based on CMIP6 GCMs

Jie Wu et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2020)

Review Environmental Sciences

Climate change impacts on wind power generation

Sara C. Pryor et al.

NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT (2020)

Article Environmental Sciences

Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas

Ignacio Losada Carreno et al.

CLIMATIC CHANGE (2020)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Assessment of climate change impacts on energy capacity planning in Ontario, Canada using high-resolution regional climate model

Shuo Wang et al.

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION (2020)

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An evaluation of the wind energy dynamics in the Baltic Sea, past and future projections

Eugen Rusu

RENEWABLE ENERGY (2020)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

On the increased climate sensitivity in the EC-Earth model from CMIP5 to CMIP6

Klaus Wyser et al.

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

High-resolution multi-model projections of onshore wind resources over Portugal under a changing climate

Miguel Nogueira et al.

THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY (2019)

Article Environmental Sciences

Changes in offshore wind power potential over the Mediterranean Sea using CORDEX projections

Ines Alvarez et al.

REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (2019)

Review Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

A comprehensive review on wind resource extrapolation models applied in wind energy

Giovanni Gualtieri

RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS (2019)

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Estimating the impact of climate change on wind and solar energy in Brazil using a South American regional climate model

Pieter de Jong et al.

RENEWABLE ENERGY (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Projected changes in wind energy potential over West Africa under the global warming of 1.5 °C and above

Windmanagda Sawadogo et al.

THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY (2019)

Article Thermodynamics

The temporal variability of global wind energy - Long-term trends and inter annual variability

Christopher Jung et al.

ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Near-surface mean wind in Switzerland: Climatology, climate model evaluation and future scenarios

Michael Graf et al.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

A 30-year projection of the future wind energy resources in the coastal environment of the Black Sea

Eugen Rusu

RENEWABLE ENERGY (2019)

Article Thermodynamics

Changing wind speed distributions under future global climate

Christopher Jung et al.

ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT (2019)

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Contribution of Variable Renewable Energy to increase energy security in Latin America: Complementarity and climate change impacts on wind and solar resources

Cindy Viviescas et al.

RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS (2019)

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Oklahoma's future wind energy resources and their relationship with the Central Plains low-level jet

Joshua J. Wimhurst et al.

RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS (2019)

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A reversal in global terrestrial stilling and its implications for wind energy production

Zhenzhong Zeng et al.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2019)

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Wind energy land distribution in Morocco in 2021-2050 according to RCM simulation of CORDEX-Africa project

Youssef El Hadri et al.

ARABIAN JOURNAL OF GEOSCIENCES (2019)

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Effects on power system operations of potential changes in wind and solar generation potential under climate change

Michael T. Craig et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2019)

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Climate change impact on Northwestern African offshore wind energy resources

Pedro M. M. Soares et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2019)

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Assessment of climate change impacts on wind resource characteristics and wind energy potential in Greece

Theodoros Katopodis et al.

JOURNAL OF RENEWABLE AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY (2019)

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Climate change impacts on renewable energy generation. A review of quantitative projections

Kepa Solaun et al.

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Wind Over the Adriatic Region in CORDEX Climate Change Scenarios

Andreina Belusic Vozila et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2019)

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A climate projection dataset tailored for the European energy sector

Blanka Bartok et al.

CLIMATE SERVICES (2019)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) for the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP)

Oliver Gutjahr et al.

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Framework for assessment of climate change impact on offshore wind energy

Sumeet Kulkarni et al.

METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS (2018)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Southward shift of the global wind energy resource under high carbon dioxide emissions

Kristopher B. Karnauskas et al.

NATURE GEOSCIENCE (2018)

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Should future wind speed changes be taken into account in wind farm development?

Annemarie Devis et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2018)

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Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5 °C warmer world

J. Scott Hosking et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2018)

Article Environmental Sciences

The resilience of Australian wind energy to climate change

Jason P. Evans et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2018)

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A decision-making model for the analysis of offshore wind farm projects under climate uncertainties: A case study of South Korea

Kyeongseok Kim et al.

RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS (2018)

Review Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Climate change impacts on wind energy potential in the European domain with a focus on the Black Sea

Richard Davy et al.

RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS (2018)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

The future of wind energy in California: Future projections with the Variable-Resolution CESM

Meina Wang et al.

RENEWABLE ENERGY (2018)

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Future Changes of Wind Speed and Wind Energy Potentials in EURO-CORDEX Ensemble Simulations

Julia Moemken et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2018)

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On the inter-annual variability of wind energy generation - A case study from Germany

Christopher Jung et al.

APPLIED ENERGY (2018)

Article Energy & Fuels

Estimation of the Near Future Wind Power Potential in the Black Sea

Daniel Ganea et al.

ENERGIES (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Winds: intensity and power density simulated by RegCM4 over South America in present and future climate

Michelle Simoes Reboita et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2018)

Article Environmental Sciences

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

Keywan Riahi et al.

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS (2017)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

How Suitable is Quantile Mapping For Postprocessing GCM Precipitation Forecasts?

Tongtiegang Zhao et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2017)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2)

Ronald Gelaro et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2017)

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A foundation for the strategic long-term planning of the renewable energy sector in Brazil: Hydroelectricity and wind energy in the face of climate change scenarios

Vera Ruffato-Ferreira et al.

RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS (2017)

Article Energy & Fuels

Western Iberian offshore wind resources: More or less in a global warming climate?

Pedro M. M. Soares et al.

APPLIED ENERGY (2017)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Simulating the effects of climate change and afforestation on wind power potential in Nigeria

Olaniran J. Matthew et al.

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND ASSESSMENTS (2017)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Future projections of wind resource in a mountainous archipelago, Canary Islands

Albano Gonzalez et al.

RENEWABLE ENERGY (2017)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Potential impacts of climate change on European wind energy resource under the CMIP5 future climate projections

D. Carvalho et al.

RENEWABLE ENERGY (2017)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

The impact of climate change on the levelised cost of wind energy

Daniel Hdidouan et al.

RENEWABLE ENERGY (2017)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization

Veronika Eyring et al.

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT (2016)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Homogenization and Assessment of Observed Near-Surface Wind Speed Trends over Spain and Portugal, 1961-2011

Cesar Azorin-Molina et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2014)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

J-L. Dufresne et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2013)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

How well do CMIP5 Earth System Models simulate present climate conditions in Europe and Africa?

S. Brands et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2013)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

AN OVERVIEW OF CMIP5 AND THE EXPERIMENT DESIGN

Karl E. Taylor et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2012)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A New Global Climate Model of the Meteorological Research Institute: MRI-CGCM3-Model Description and Basic Performance

Seiji Yukimoto et al.

JOURNAL OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY OF JAPAN (2012)

Article Environmental Sciences

The representative concentration pathways: an overview

Detlef P. van Vuuren et al.

CLIMATIC CHANGE (2011)

Article Environmental Sciences

RCP 8.5-A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions

Keywan Riahi et al.

CLIMATIC CHANGE (2011)

Article Environmental Sciences

RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C

Detlef P. van Vuuren et al.

CLIMATIC CHANGE (2011)

Review Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system

D. P. Dee et al.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2011)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments

S. Watanabe et al.

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT (2011)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Northern Hemisphere atmospheric stilling partly attributed to an increase in surface roughness

Robert Vautard et al.

NATURE GEOSCIENCE (2010)