Alternative SIAR models for infectious diseases and applications in the study of non-compliance

In this paper, we use modified versions of the SIAR model for epidemics to propose two ways of understanding and quantifying the effect of non-compliance to non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the spread of an infectious disease. The SIAR model distinguishes between symptomatic infected (I) and asymptomatic infected (A) populations. One modification, which is simpler, assumes a known proportion of the population does not comply with government mandates such as quarantining and social-distancing. In a more sophisticated approach, the modified model treats non-compliant behavior as a social contagion. We theoretically explore different scenarios such as the occurrence of multiple waves of infections. Local and asymptotic analyses for both models are also provided.

Automated summary

In this paper, two ways of understanding and quantifying the effect of non-compliance to non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the spread of infectious diseases are proposed using modified versions of the SIAR model. The first modification assumes a known proportion of the population does not comply with government mandates, while the second modification treats non-compliant behavior as a social contagion. The paper also explores different scenarios and provides local and asymptotic analyses for both models.