Impact of armed conflict on land use and land cover changes in global border areas

National borderlands as the spatial carrier and forefront for exerting geopolinomical influence and implementing geopolinomical strategy, most have the same or similar eco-geographical structure characteristics, such as land cover. However, there are different development trends in different national relationships (e.g., cooperation and conflict), and land use and land cover changes (LUCC), especially in apparent in border areas. In general, armed conflict in border areas is accompanied by severe, immediate and long-lasting LUCC-like forest loss. Here, by means of geospatial analysis, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and Climate Change Initiative Land Cover dataset were used to investigate the linkages between the armed conflict and LUCC or the patterns and processes of LUCC before, during and after armed conflict around the globe in borderlands from 1992 to 2020. The main and key insights are: (1) nearly 50% of global armed conflict has occurred and re-occurred in these borderlands since 1992, leading to about 16.5% of LUCC globally; (2) the impact of armed conflict on LUUC is hysteretic, based on the intensity of conflict, especially in borderlands; (3) the transfer rate of land use is high during the conflict and tends to be stable in the post-conflict period; (4) the absolute amount of armed conflict damage to forest land is large, but the changes rate of impervious surfaces is far more than the former, nearly 18 times greater. These findings improve the understanding of the impact of armed conflict on LUCC, in border areas. This study could provide a proxy and benchmark for exploring the cause-effect and impact-response between geopolinomical relations and the borderlands LUCC.

Automated summary

This study examines the linkages between armed conflicts and land use and land cover changes (LUCC) in borderlands. The findings show that nearly 50% of global armed conflicts since 1992 have occurred in borderlands, resulting in approximately 16.5% of global LUCC. The impact of armed conflicts on land use is delayed, with most changes occurring during the conflict period, and the rate of impervious surface changes is higher.