期刊
JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS
卷 21, 期 2, 页码 79-93出版社
TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC
DOI: 10.1080/15472450.2016.1163639
关键词
bottleneck; stochastic capacity; stochastic demand; travel time variability
资金
- U.S. University Transportation Center [NTC2015-MU-R-05]
- National Science Foundation-U.S. [CMMI 1538105]
Travel time reliability, an essential factor in traveler route and departure time decisions, serves as an important quality of service measure for dynamic transportation systems. This article investigates a fundamental problem of quantifying travel time variability from its root sources: stochastic capacity and demand variations that follow commonly used log-normal distributions. A volume-to-capacity ratio-based travel time function and a point queue model are used to demonstrate how day-to-day travel time variability can be explained from the underlying demand and capacity variations. One important finding is that closed-form solutions can be derived to formulate travel time variations as a function of random demand/capacity distributions, but there are certain cases in which a closed-form expression does not exist and numerical approximation methods are required. This article also uses probabilistic capacity reduction information to estimate time-dependent travel time variability distributions under conditions of non-recurring traffic congestion. The proposed models provide theoretically rigorous and practically useful tools for understanding the causes of travel time unreliability and evaluating the system-wide benefit of reducing demand and capacity variability.
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