期刊
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
卷 612, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128234
关键词
Climate change; Sea-level rise; Mangrove; Exotic species; Groundwater; Numerical modeling
资金
- University of Hong Kong [201910159187]
This study used a coupled hydro-vegetation model to simulate the spatial and temporal distribution of native and exotic mangroves in a mangrove forest in southern China. The study found that native mangroves grow best under moderate sea-level rise, but excessive rise can lead to a drastic decline in exotic mangrove populations.
The adverse effects of sea-level rise on coastal wetlands have been extensively reported, whereas the positive effects on wetland composition have tended to receive less attention. Using a coupled hydro-vegetation model, we modeled the spatial and temporal distribution of native and exotic mangroves for 120 years in a mangrove forest in southern China in scenarios with and without sea-level rise. After approximately 50 years, the self-reinforcing feedback between mangroves and subsurface salinity is expected to create a stable ecosystem. Without sea-level rise, salt-sensitive exotic species will inhibit the growth of native mangroves, potentially leading to a more fragile ecosystem. Native mangroves are predicted to grow best under moderate sea-level rise (0.5 m). If sea level rises by 1 m, exotic mangrove populations in southern China are predicted to drastically decline. Competition between salt-tolerant and salt-intolerant plants is common in coastal wetlands, and the modeling method presented in this study may be globally applicable.
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