期刊
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
卷 317, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115318
关键词
Water resources allocation; Copula functions; Interval linear programming; Water shortage risk; Dalian city
资金
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds [2021-05]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [72122004]
- Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation [2022A1515012023, 2021A1515011732]
- National Social Science Grant [20BGL190]
- Academician Workstation Project of Dongguan [DGYSZ201806]
In this study, a Copula-based interval linear programming model was established to analyze water resources allocation. The model identified the interactions between water demand and socio-economic development levels and explored variations in water shortage with consideration of multiple risk tolerance levels. The results showed that the amount of water supply in Dalian City would gradually decrease with the increase of risk tolerance levels of decision-makers.
Water scarcity tends to be aggravated by increase in water demand with the trend of socio-economic development. Thus, non-stationary characteristics of water demand should be identified in water resources allocation (WRA) to alleviate the potential influences from water shortages. In this study, a Copula-based interval linear programming model was established for regional WRA. Through combining correlation analysis and an interval linear programming model, this model can: 1) identify interactions between water demand and socio-economic development levels based on Copula functions, 2) explore variations in water shortage with consideration of multiple risk tolerance levels of decision-makers based on Copula sampling, and 3) obtain desired strategies for WRA through an interval linear programming model. Also, Dalian City in China was selected as a case study area to verify the effectiveness of the model for WRA to five water users (i.e., agricultural sector, industrial sector, public service sector, domestic residents, and ecological environment). Considering multiple tolerance levels of decision-makers to water shortage risk, three scenarios (i.e., S1 to S3), indicating 20%, 40%, and 60% of their low, medium, and high tolerance levels, were proposed. The results showed that the correlation between the amount of water demand and indicators of socio-economic development can be described by Clayton and Gaussian Copula functions. The total water supply of Dalian in 2030 would increase by 2.06%-2.65%, compared with the one in 2025. The allocation of water resources across districts was influenced by varied water demand, energy consumption, and risk tolerance levels. Compared with the amount of water allocation in 2025, the contribution of transferred water sources would increase by 6.71% and 7.04% under S1 and S2 in 2030, respectively, and decrease by 14.31% under S3. With the increase of risk tolerance levels of decision-makers, the amount of water supply in Dalian City would gradually decrease.
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