Evolution of global plastic waste trade flows from 2000 to 2020 and its predicted trade sinks in 2030

The implementation of China's ban on plastic waste, the Basel Convention (Amendment) and the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic have brought new possibilities and challenges to the development of global plastics trading patterns. The spatial and temporal evolution of the Global Plastic Waste Trade Network (GPWTN), the prediction of the trade sources and sinks of the dominated countries in the future have not been well studied. In this paper, GPWTN is established based on the global import and export data of waste plastic from 2000 to 2020, using complex networks, regression analysis, and link prediction methods, further to be predicted the trends of trade structure and the global pattern by 2030. The results show that GWPTN is a heterogeneous network. The GPWTN trade pattern has gone through several stages: from regional agglomeration to global dispersion, then to form the largest trade community among Southeast Asia-Europe-USA, and finally to trade differentiation. There is a change in the structure and center of GPWTN: flows have shifted from a single one-way to a coexistence of one-way trade and two-way intra-European trade. The structure has evolved a new relatively stable pattern dominated by Europe (Netherlands, Turkey, etc.) and Asia. In 2030, Germany will become an important hub for the European plastic waste trade, and its position in Europe is equivalent to China's once in global trade. The Bahamas, Nicaragua, Colombia, Honduras, Nigeria, Zambia, South Africa, Uganda, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, etc., might become the primary sinks for plastic waste by 2025, steadily playing an important role in global trade.

Automated summary

China's ban on plastic waste, the Basel Convention (Amendment), and the COVID-19 epidemic have affected global plastic trading patterns. This study establishes the Global Plastic Waste Trade Network (GPWTN) based on import and export data from 2000 to 2020 and predicts future trade trends and patterns. The results show that the GPWTN has evolved from regional agglomeration to global dispersion, with Southeast Asia-Europe-USA forming the largest trade community. Germany is expected to become a key hub for European plastic waste trade, while countries like the Bahamas, Nicaragua, and Colombia may become primary destinations for plastic waste.