Evaluation of Extreme Soil Moisture Conditions During the 2020 Sahel Floods and Implications for Disease Outbreaks

The June-October 2020 growing season was characterized by sustained and extreme flooding across the African Sahel. One consequence of flooding events such as this is outbreaks of vector borne diseases (VBDs) which are often associated with climate anomalies. In this study, data from the soil moisture active passive (SMAP) mission is used with other soil moisture and precipitation data to show that the 2020 Sahelian growing season was the most extreme over the past four decades, ranking first in seasonally accumulated precipitation, which on average exceeded the climatology by around 300 mm. VBD outbreaks of Rift Valley fever and Chikungunya followed in Mauritania/Senegal and Chad, respectively. In some cases, soil moisture is a better indicator of VBD outbreak risk than precipitation, which has so far been more commonly used in studies of VBD outbreaks. It is expected that this finding will inform future monitoring and prediction efforts for VBD risk.

Automated summary

The African Sahel experienced sustained and extreme flooding during the June-October 2020 growing season, leading to outbreaks of vector borne diseases. Using soil moisture and precipitation data, this study found that the 2020 Sahelian growing season was the most extreme in the past four decades, with average precipitation exceeding climatology by around 300 mm. Rift Valley fever and Chikungunya outbreaks occurred in Chad and Mauritania/Senegal, respectively. Soil moisture was found to be a better indicator of VBD outbreak risk than precipitation, which is commonly used in studies of VBD outbreaks.