Winter North Atlantic SST as a Precursor of Spring Eurasian Wildfire

Boreal fires considerably influence carbon release and air quality, but its occurrence mechanisms need to be explored. This study investigated the influence of winter North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) on spring Eurasian wildfire using single value decomposition method. Two possible pathways link such time-lag phenomena. The anomalous SST pattern in winter can persist to spring, resulting in a significant high air-pressure anomaly over southeastern Siberia, which corresponds to less-than-normal precipitation and enhanced aridity conditions and the increasing wildfire risk. Meanwhile, there are simultaneously negative snow cover anomalies over southeastern Siberia during winter which is closely related to the winter SSTs. Such snow anomalies persist from winter to spring, leading to negatively anomalous soil moisture. Both pathways provide a favorable environment for wildfire activities. This study implies that the winter North Atlantic SST could be a robust driver and potential precursor for spring wildfire prediction over southeastern Siberia.

Automated summary

This study investigated the influence of winter North Atlantic sea surface temperature on spring Eurasian wildfire and found two possible pathways. Firstly, the anomalous SST pattern in winter can persist to spring, leading to high air-pressure anomaly over southeastern Siberia and enhancing aridity conditions and wildfire risk. Secondly, the negative snow cover anomalies during winter can result in negatively anomalous soil moisture, providing a favorable environment for wildfire activities.