Future Hurricanes Will Increase Palm Abundance and Decrease Aboveground Biomass in a Tropical Forest

Hurricanes are expected to intensify throughout the 21st century, yet the impact of frequent major hurricanes on tropical ecosystems remains unknown. To investigate tropical forest damage and recovery under different hurricane regimes, we generate a suite of scenarios based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate projections and increased hurricane recurrence and intensity for the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. We then use the Ecosystem Demography model to predict changes in carbon stocks, forest structure and composition. Our results indicate that frequent hurricane disturbances in the future would decrease the overall aboveground biomass, decrease the dominance of late-successional species, but increase the dominance of palm species. Warmer climates with increased CO2 would have little effect on the functional-type composition but increase the aboveground biomass. However, the predicted climate and CO2 fertilization effects would not compensate for the biomass loss due to more frequent severe-hurricane disturbances.

Automated summary

This study examines the impact of frequent major hurricanes on tropical ecosystems using climate projections and increased hurricane recurrence and intensity scenarios. The results indicate that frequent hurricane disturbances would decrease overall aboveground biomass and the dominance of late-successional species, while increasing the dominance of palm species. Warmer climates and increased CO2 levels would have minor effects on the functional-type composition, but would increase aboveground biomass. However, these climate and CO2 fertilization effects would not compensate for the biomass loss caused by more frequent severe-hurricane disturbances.