期刊
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
卷 543, 期 -, 页码 344-359出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.10.011
关键词
Nexus; WPE nexus; System dynamics; Coevolution; Interconnection
资金
- Excellent Young Scientist Foundation of the National Natural Science Foundation of China [51422907]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [51579180]
- National Key Research and Development Program [2016YFC0400907]
Nexus approaches address the complex interconnections across coupled systems, providing a new and effective way to identify the dynamics of coevolution process. The connections across water supply, power generation and environment (WPE) systems are increasingly tight and thus can be profiled as a WPE nexus. This paper aims to model the WPE nexus in the China's Hehuang Region by using the system dynamics approach. Six nonlinear ordinary differential equations of storage, water supply, power generation, population, biomass, and environmental awareness are formulated to dominate the coevolution process. Their constitutive relations are then obtained from observed data to complete the WPE nexus model. The results show that the system dynamics approach is competent in modeling the WPE nexus of the Hehuang Region. The coevolution process is divided into four cyclic stages (i.e., exploitation, deterioration, depression and recovery stages) and terminates with a stationary cycling after thousands of years. The dynamics of state variables are explicitly interpreted to show how different driving variables affect the variations of system states. The observations obtained by modeling the nexus are insightful, improving the understanding of interactions across coupled systems. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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