Integrative decision-making framework for techno-economic planning and sustainability assessment of renewable dominated standalone hybrid microgrids infrastructure at provincial scale of Pakistan

Renewable energy is considered a viable solution for addressing the energy crisis and environmental issues sustainably. However, instead of huge available renewable potential in especially Northern region of Pakistan, its potential undermining imposes a utilization of traditional energy resources, which poses a lot of sustainability and economic challenges. Focusing on almost 100% renewable fraction and solving the sustainable energy access issues of almost 0.439091 million energy consumers, this study proposes an integrative decision-making framework to carry techno-economic-environmental sustainability and optimal sizing of renewable dominated hybrid autonomous microgrids for 19 independent sites of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with the aims of minimizing the Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and life cycle cost (LCC). A comparative analysis based on LCOE with already carried literature, dispatch strategies, and hydrogen storage-based system is also performed. In addition, envi-ronmental evaluation is performed along with required forests absorbing carbon analysis. At last, sensitivity analyses are performed for various uncertain variables. Optimization results showed that the PV system coupled with hydro remains the most feasible configuration with an average LCOE of 0.0359 $/kWh to 0.1185 $/kWh. Due to having a significant potential for hydel, Northern zone remains the most feasible zone for investing in standalone electrification infrastructure experiencing an average LCOE of 0.1026 $/kWh. A system with a 100% renewable fraction more specifically a combination of PV and wind proved the most environment-friendly configuration. In contrast, MG-08 experiences the highest GHG emission i.e., 5748.75 tonnes, thus requiring the largest forest area i.e., 523.15 ha to absorb carbon emissions. Developed model can provide a reference pathway for U.N.-SDGs as well as to government and private investors for decision-making and policy optimization.

Automated summary

This study proposes an integrative decision-making framework for renewable energy microgrids in northern Pakistan, aiming to address the low utilization of renewable potential and provide sustainable and economically viable solutions. The analysis shows that a combination of solar PV and hydro remains the most feasible configuration, and the developed model can support decision-making and policy optimization for UN-SDGs, government, and private investors.