Sea-level rise effects on macrozoobenthos distribution within an estuarine gradient using Species Distribution Modeling

The sea-level rise induced by climate change has caused impacts (e.g., floods and saline intrusion) in estuaries. In this work, we used monitoring data (salinity, sediment and taxa occurrence), simulated saline intrusion and Species Distribution Model to predict the spatial distribution of families in the estuary at two levels of SLR (0.5 m and 1 m) for two scenarios (moderate and extreme). For the simulation, we used the ensemble method applied to five models (MARS, GLM, GAM, RF and BRT). High AUC and TSS values indicated good to excellent accu-racy. RF and GLM obtained the best and worst values, respectively. The model predicted local extinctions and new colonization in the upper estuarine zones. With the effects of climate change intensifying, it is extremely important that managers consider the use of predictive tools to anticipate the impacts of climate change on a local scale on species migration.

Automated summary

This study used monitoring data, simulation, and species distribution models to predict the impacts of sea-level rise on estuaries. The results showed that climate change could result in local extinctions and new colonization of species. It is important for managers to use predictive tools to anticipate the effects of climate change on species migration.