Strengthening of the maritime influence on the Balkans in summer as a result of changes in atmospheric circulation

This study focuses on the strengthening of the maritime influence on the Balkan Peninsula in summer. The study uses mainly statistical methods such as trend analysis, multiple linear regression models, etc. The research period is 1979-2020. The results show that in the beginning of the twenty-first century in southeastern Europe there is a tendency of faster increase in the average August air temperatures compared to the increase in average July air temperatures. Thus, the temperature in August is already higher than that in July. The causes for these changes are changes in atmospheric circulation in summer. Over the last two decades, the transport of air masses from east and southeast has been strengthening, which for the Balkan Peninsula means a transport from water basins toward land. The intra-annual course of air temperature above a water basin, which has a maximum in August, is now becoming typical over land. This feature is not yet present in the entire studied region, but the trends from the measurements in meteorological stations show that very soon the temperatures in August could be higher than that in July over the entire territory of the Balkan Peninsula. On a more global scale, it is still unclear which mechanisms of atmospheric circulation influence the processes in southeastern Europe. Changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic are likely to have an impact. However, other factors (e.g. the increase in global temperatures, the expansion of Hadley cell) may also have an impact.

Automated summary

This study examines the strengthening of maritime influence on the Balkan Peninsula during summer. Using statistical methods such as trend analysis and multiple linear regression models, the research period of 1979-2020 reveals that there is a faster increase in average August air temperatures compared to July. Changes in atmospheric circulation in the summer, particularly the strengthening transport of air masses from east and southeast, are responsible for these temperature changes. The results suggest that August temperatures may soon exceed July temperatures across the entire Balkan Peninsula. The mechanisms of atmospheric circulation influencing southeastern Europe, including changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic, are still unclear.