Has Arctic sea ice loss contributed to weakening winter and strengthening summer polar front jets over the Eastern Hemisphere?

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic sea ice loss has been observed, and its potential influences on the midlatitude weather and climate have been extensively examined, but strongly debated. This study instead investigates influences of Arctic sea ice loss on the Eastern Hemisphere westerly wind on the poleward side of the polar front jet (PFJ), which has significantly weakened in winter but strengthened in summer since 1980s. Observational analyses indicate that the Eastern Hemisphere PFJ anomalies in winter and summer are strongly correlated with Northern Hemisphere (NH) atmospheric circulation, surface air temperature and precipitation changes, and that the winter PFJ variability is significantly correlated to Barents-Kara sea ice anomalies from autumn and winter at interannual time scales. About 58% of the observed winter PFJ weakened trend during 1979-2014 is congruent with the autumn sea ice index over the Barents-Kara Seas. Atmospheric model ensemble simulations from four models show that Arctic sea ice loss contributes to Arctic warming in winter and reduces the northern Eurasia-pole temperature contrast, leading to an significant weakening winter PFJ. Ensemble mean effects of four models and each model due to Arctic sea ice loss explain about 10-20% of the observed winter PFJ weakening trend, because the model simulations underestimate observed impacts of sea ice reduction on Arctic troposphere warming. In summer, the strengthening PFJ is mostly controlled by increasing greenhouse gases and sea surface temperature changes outside the Arctic, but is little affected by Arctic sea ice loss. Our observational and numerical results consistently suggest that a dynamical pathway linking observed Arctic sea ice loss to northern Eurasian winter is through its weakening effect on the westerly wind on the poleward side of the PFJ.

Automated summary

This study investigates the impact of Arctic sea ice loss on the Eastern Hemisphere westerly wind and finds that the weakening of the winter westerly wind is strongly correlated with sea ice anomalies in the Barents-Kara Seas. Arctic sea ice loss in winter contributes to Arctic warming and weakens the winter polar front jet, while in summer, the strengthening of the polar front jet is mainly controlled by greenhouse gases and sea surface temperature changes outside the Arctic.