期刊
BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES
卷 22, 期 1, 页码 -出版社
BMC
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07799-0
关键词
Tourism; Mobility; Spatial analysis; Causal inference; Economic campaign; Time-series data
资金
- JSPS KAKENHI [21H03198, 22K19670, 22J14304]
- Fujiwara Memorial Foundation
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI [20J2135800]
- Health and Labour Sciences Research Grants [20CA2024, 20HA2007, 21HB1002, 21HA2016]
- Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development [JP20fk0108140, JP20fk0108535, JP21fk0108612]
- Japan Science and Technology Agency SICORP program [JPMJSC20U3, JPMJSC2105]
- RISTEX program for Science of Science, Technology and Innovation Policy [JPMJRS22B4]
- Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan [JPMEERF20S11804]
The Go To Travel campaign implemented by the Japanese government in 2020 resulted in the spatial spread of COVID-19 from urban to nonurban locations, where healthcare capacity may have been limited.
Background In 2020, the Japanese government implemented first of two Go To Travel campaigns to promote the tourism sector as well as eating and drinking establishments, especially in remote areas. The present study aimed to explore the relationship between enhanced travel and geographic propagation of COVID-19 across Japan, focusing on the second campaign with nationwide large-scale economic boost in 2020. Methods We carried out an interrupted time-series analysis to identify the possible cause-outcome relationship between the Go To Travel campaign and the spread of infection to nonurban areas in Japan. Specifically, we counted the number of prefectures that experienced a weekly incidence of three, five, and seven COVID-19 cases or more per 100,000 population, and we compared the rate of change before and after the campaign. Results Three threshold values and three different models identified an increasing number of prefectures above the threshold, indicating that the inter-prefectural spread intensified following the launch of the second Go To Travel campaign from October 1st, 2020. The simplest model that accounted for an increase in the rate of change only provided the best fit. We estimated that 0.24 (95% confidence interval 0.15 to 0.34) additional prefectures newly exceeded five COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population per week during the second campaign. Conclusions The enhanced movement resulting from the Go To Travel campaign facilitated spatial spread of COVID-19 from urban to nonurban locations, where health-care capacity may have been limited.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据