The cost of recharging infrastructure for electric vehicles in the EU in a climate neutrality context: Factors influencing investments in 2030 and 2050

The electrification of passenger cars is a cornerstone of the EU strategy to decarbonising European transport by 2050. A key step for the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) is to scale up the rollout of rechargers. The paper assesses which factors influence the investments in EU recharging infrastructure in a context of ambitious EV deployment projected under the Fitfor55 policy package of the European Commission. We use an energy demand method that includes assumptions on charging requirements of different EV types, the structure of the charging fleet, the survival probability and learning rates of the rechargers and conduct a sensitivity analysis to quantify their impact on investments. The projected electricity share in passenger cars is about 4.5% (65 TWh) and the required infrastructure ranges between 3.2 and 4 million chargers in 2030, while investments range between 8.7 and 16.2 bn euro in 2021-2030. By mid-century, the electrification share of passenger cars increases to 62% (285 TWh) for which we estimate a total demand of 13.6 to 20.3 million chargers and an additional 44.3 to 80.3 bn euro of investments in 2031-2050. A regression analysis depicts a strong correlation between fast chargers and investment expenditures, which is particularly relevant for 2021-2030, a period, when the deployment of a fast charging network will be needed to help reduce charging times and enable the roll-out of EVs. The energy output per charging point is the second most influential factor. Other factors, while important, are found not to significantly affect system costs.

Automated summary

The electrification of passenger cars is an important part of the EU's strategy to decarbonize European transport. This paper assesses the factors that influence investments in EU recharging infrastructure and conducts a sensitivity analysis. The results show that fast chargers and the energy output per charging point are the most influential factors on investments.