期刊
JOURNAL OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
卷 316, 期 -, 页码 143-150出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2016.05.033
关键词
Environmental risk; Probability analysis; Fuzzy theory; Uncertainty; Variability
资金
- Key Projects in the National Science & Technology Pillar Program in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan Period [2008BAC43B01]
Better decisions are made using risk assessment models when uncertainty and variability are explicitly acknowledged. Uncertainty caused by a lack of uniform and scientifically supported environmental quality guidelines and variability in the degree of exposure of environmental systems to contaminants are here incorporated in a stochastic fuzzy environmental risk characterization (SFERC) approach. The approach is based on quotient probability distribution and environmental risk level fuzzy membership function methods. The SFERC framework was used to characterize the environmental risks posed by 16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soil at a typical petroleum-contaminated site in China. This relied on integrating data from the literature and field and laboratory experiments. The environmental risk levels posed by the PAHs under four risk scenarios were determined using the SFERC approach using residential land and industrial land environmental quality guidelines under loose and strict strictness parameters. The results showed that environmental risks posed by PAHs in soil are primarily caused by oil exploitation, traffic emissions, and coal combustion. The SFERC approach is an effective tool for characterizing uncertainty and variability in environmental risk assessments and for managing contaminated sites. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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