Analysis of perceived robustness, adaptability and transformability of Spanish extensive livestock farms under alternative challenging scenarios

CONTEXT: Extensive livestock farms in the EU operate in a context of increasing market liberalization and competition, changing consumer patterns and decreasing meat consumption, and increasing climate change related risks. In turn, EU policy calls for better supporting extensive systems due to their numerous socio-ecological benefits and aims to improve the resilience of extensive livestock farms. OBJECTIVE: The research question underlying this paper is: which resilience capacities may help livestock farmers deal with different types of challenges? The specific research objectives are: 1) to quantify the resilience capacities of robustness, adaptability and transformability and the challenges as perceived by farmers; 2) identify the main challenges affecting the perceived resilience capacities; and 3) to evaluate how perceived resilience capacities perform under alternative scenarios. METHODS: The paper relies on the use of data from a survey of 120 cattle and sheep farmers in Spain to study the latent property of resilience through farmers' perception. The methodology consists of mixed statistical methods to address the three specific objectives. First, descriptive statistics to quantify the perceived resilience capacities and challenges threatening farming systems; second, fitting Partial Least Square regressions to identify the main challenges affecting robustness, adaptability and transformability; and third, stochastically simulate challenging scenarios to predict the behavior of the three resilience capacities under different types of challenges. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Resilience capacities perform in different manners when dealing with challenges. Adaptability and transformability seem to be more effective under socio-economic long-term pressures. Robustness performs poorly under challenges either in the short-or long-run and appears to be more effective against economic and environmental challenges. Institutional challenges are the main threats to resilience, especially when it comes to reduced subsidies, restricted access to land, and subsidies-induced competition. SIGNIFICANCE: The paper's contribution consists of the empirical advances in understanding the resilience capacities and their ability to deal with different types of challenges, about which the literature offers little guidance. To this end, the paper proposes a quantitative methodological solution that is relevant considering the need for methodological progress towards resilience quantifications. Lastly, the paper may inform policymaking by bringing new evidence into the debate on the future of extensive livestock in the EU based on the case of Spanish cattle and sheep farms.

Automated summary

This study aims to explore the resilience capacities that livestock farmers in extensive farms in the EU need to deal with various challenges, such as market liberalization, competition, changing consumer patterns, decreasing meat consumption, and increasing climate change risks. The study uses data from a survey of 120 cattle and sheep farmers in Spain and applies mixed statistical methods to quantify farmers' perception of resilience capacities and challenges. The findings suggest that adaptability and transformability are more effective in dealing with long-term challenges, while robustness performs poorly in both short and long-term challenges, and is more effective against economic and environmental challenges. Institutional challenges pose the main threats to resilience.