Energy transition toward carbon-neutrality in China: Pathways, implications and uncertainties

Achieving carbon neutrality in China before 2060 requires a radical energy transition. To identify the possible transition pathways of China's energy system, this study presents a scenario-based assessment using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model. China could peak the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions before 2030 with current policies, while carbon neutrality entails a reduction of 7.8 Gt CO2 in emissions in 2060 and requires an energy system overhaul. The assessment of the relationship between the energy transition and energy return on investment (EROI) reveals that energy transition may decrease the EROI, which would trigger increased energy investment, energy demand, and emissions. Uncertainty analysis further shows that the slow renewable energy integration policies and carbon capture and storage (CCS) penetration pace could hinder the emission mitigation, and the possible fossil fuel shortage calls for a much rapid proliferation of wind and solar power. Results suggest a continuation of the current preferential policies for renewables and further research and development on deployment of CCS. The results also indicate the need for backup capacities to enhance the energy security during the transition.

Automated summary

This study presents a scenario-based assessment using the LEAP model to identify the possible transition pathways of China's energy system toward carbon neutrality. The results show that China could peak CO2 emissions before 2030, but achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 requires a reduction of 7.8 Gt CO2. The study also suggests that the energy transition may decrease the energy return on investment, but continuing preferential policies for renewables and developing CCS deployment can help mitigate emissions.