期刊
JOURNAL OF EXPOSURE SCIENCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY
卷 27, 期 1, 页码 118-124出版社
SPRINGERNATURE
DOI: 10.1038/jes.2016.14
关键词
climate change; mortality; ozone; ozone-temperature interaction
资金
- United States Environmental Protection Agency through its Office of Research and Development
- NIH [ES007142, R21 ES022585-01, 5R01ES014843-02, R21ES022795-01A1]
- Research Participation Program for the US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development
- EPA [R835228]
- NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH SCIENCES [T32ES007142, R01ES014843, R21ES022795, R21ES022585] Funding Source: NIH RePORTER
We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate non-linear, spatially varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. (moderate level) and 75 p.p.b. (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 p.p.b. and 1.94 degrees F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone because of climate change result in an increase in ozone mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. increases by 7.7% (1.6-14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 p.p.b. increases by 14.2% (1.6 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据