Screening for Severe Illness at Diagnosis Has the Potential to Prevent Early TB Deaths: Programmatic Experience From Karnataka, India

Due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and its associated response, TB deaths increased for the first time in a decade. In any potentially fatal illness, an assessment of severity is essential. This is not systematically done for adults with TB, mostly due to a lack of policy and/or limited availability of diagnostic and clinical capacity. We developed a screening tool using simple and easily measurable indicators that can be used by paramedical TB program staff to quickly identify people with severe illness. During October-November 2020 in Karnataka, India, the paramedical program staff from 16 districts screened people with TB (aged >= 15 years) notified by public facilities for high risk of severe illness, which was defined as the presence of any of the following indicators: (1) body mass index (BMI) <= 14.0 kg/m(2); (2) BMI <= 16.0 kg/m(2) with bilateral leg swelling; (3) respiratory rate >24/minute; (4) oxygen saturation <94%; (5) inability to stand without support. In this cohort study, we determined the incidence of program-recorded early deaths (within 2 months) and its association with high risk of severe illness. Of 3,010 people with TB, 1,529 (50.8%) were screened at diagnosis/notification, of whom 537 (35.1%) had a high risk of severe illness. There were 195 (6.5%, 95% CI=5.7, 7.4) early deaths: 59 (30.2%) within a week and 100 (51.3%) within 2 weeks of treatment initiation. The incidence of early deaths was significantly higher among those with high risk of severe illness (8.9%) at diagnosis compared to those without (3.8%) [adjusted relative risk: 2.36 (95% confidence interval=1.57, 3.55)]. To conclude, early deaths were especially high during the first 2 weeks and strongly associated with a high risk of severe illness at diagnosis/notification. Screening for severe illness should be explored as a potential strategy to end TB deaths.

Automated summary

TB deaths increased for the first time in a decade due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study developed a screening tool using simple indicators to identify people with severe illness and found that early deaths were significantly higher among those with high risk of severe illness at diagnosis.