Development and Validation of a Deep Learning Model to Screen for Trisomy 21 During the First Trimester From Nuchal Ultrasonographic Images

IMPORTANCE Accurate screening of trisomy 21 in the first trimester can provide an early opportunity for decision-making regarding reproductive choices. OBJECTIVE To develop and validate a deep learning model for screening fetuses with trisomy 21 based on ultrasonographic images. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This diagnostic study used data from all available cases and controls enrolled at 2 hospitals in China between January 2009 and September 2020. Two-dimensional images of the midsagittal plane of the fetal face in singleton pregnancies with gestational age more than 11 weeks and less than 14 weeks were examined. Observers were blinded to subjective fetus nuchal translucency (NT) marker measurements. A convolutional neural network was developed to construct a deep learning model. Data augmentation was applied to generate more data. Different groups were randomly selected as training and validation sets to assess the robustness of the deep learning model. The fetal NT was shown and measured. Each detection of trisomy 21 was confirmed by chorionic villus sampling or amniocentesis. Data were analyzed from March 1, 2021, to January 3, 2022. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was detection of fetuses with trisomy 21. The receiver operating characteristic curve, metrics of accuracy, area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity were used for model performance evaluation. RESULTS A total of 822 case and control participants (mean [SD] age, 31.9 [4.6] years) were enrolled in the study, including 550 participants (mean [SD] age, 31.7 [4.7] years) in the training set and 272 participants (mean [SD] age, 32.3 [4.7] years) in the validation set. The deep learning model showed good performance for trisomy 21 screening in the training (AUC, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.97-0.99) and validation (AUC, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.93-0.98) sets. The deep learning model had better detective performance for fetuses with trisomy 21 than the model with NT marker and maternal age (training: AUC, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.77-0.86; validation: AUC, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.66-0.80). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE These findings suggest that this deep learning model accurately screened fetuses with trisomy 21, which indicates that the model is a potential tool to facilitate universal primary screening for trisomy 21.

Automated summary

This study developed and validated a deep learning model for screening fetuses with trisomy 21 based on ultrasonographic images. The model showed good performance and outperformed the traditional model with NT marker and maternal age.