期刊
MATHEMATICS
卷 10, 期 12, 页码 -出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/math10122075
关键词
dengue; vaccination; model; Wolbachia
类别
资金
- Ministry of Education and Culture, Research, and Technology of Indonesia
The study suggests that the performance of Wolbachia bacteria may depend on different strains, with the WAu strain showing better efficacy in reducing dengue incidence. Vaccination on one group can decrease the disease rate in that specific group, but the impact on other groups is limited.
The use of a vaccine and Wolbachia bacterium have been proposed as new strategies against dengue. However, the performance of Wolbachia in reducing dengue incidence may depend on the Wolbachia strains. Therefore, in this paper, the performance of two Wolbachia strains which are WMel and WAu, in combination with the vaccine, has been assessed by using an age-dependent mathematical model. An effective reproduction number has been calculated using the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) algorithm. The results revealed that the time reproduction number varies overtime with the highest one being around 2.75. Moreover, it has also found that use of the vaccine and Wolbachia possibly leads to dengue elimination. Furthermore, vaccination on one group only reduces dengue incidence in that group but dengue infection in the other group is still high. Furthermore, the performance of the WAu strain is better than the WMel strain in reducing dengue incidence. However, both strains can still be used for dengue elimination strategies depending on the level of loss of Wolbachia infections in both strains.
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