Research on provincial carbon quota allocation under the background of carbon neutralization

To achieve the goals of national emission reduction, carbon peak and carbon neutralization, different provinces will face extremely limited and strict carbon emission space. How to allocate these limited carbon emission spaces is not only related to the realization of emission reduction targets, but also the development of the social economy. There are significant differences in resource endowments and development stages among provinces in China, and the industrial structure is very different. The allocation of carbon quotas under the path of carbon neutrality is particularly important. Based on the carbon-neutral path simulated by existing research, this paper selects population size, GDP value, historical cumulative carbon emissions and carbon emission efficiency indicators calculated by the Super-SBM model from the perspective of fairness and efficiency to allocate carbon quotas in each province. The results show that Guangdong has the largest proportion of 8 %, Jiangsu ranks second with 5 %, and Henan ranks third with nearly 5 %. Xinjiang, Qinghai and Ningxia has the lowest proportion of quotas, 1.7 %, 0.88 % and 0.72 % respectively. Overall, well-developed provinces (Guangdong, Jiangsu) and populous provinces (Henan, Shandong, Sichuan) have an advantage in distribution due to higher carbon emission efficiency and larger population size. In some underdeveloped regions, carbon quotas are low due to low economic development levels, small population scale and low carbon emission efficiency. Meanwhile, in some high emission provinces, such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shanxi and Xinjiang, due to the high historical cumulative carbon emissions per capita, the quota is less. (C) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Automated summary

To achieve national emission reduction, carbon peak and carbon neutralization goals, provinces in China are facing limited and strict carbon emission space. Allocating these limited carbon emission spaces is not only crucial for achieving emission reduction targets, but also for the development of the social economy. This study selects various indicators, including population size, GDP value, historical cumulative carbon emissions, and carbon emission efficiency, to allocate carbon quotas in each province based on the simulated carbon-neutral path. The results show that well-developed and populous provinces have an advantage in distribution, while underdeveloped regions and high emission provinces have lower carbon quotas.