Adjusting CA19-9 values with clinical stage and bilirubin to better predict survival of resectable pancreatic cancer patients: 5-year-follow-up of a single center

BackgroundPancreatic cancer mortality is growing every year, and radical resection is the most essential therapy strategy. It is critical to evaluate the long-term prognosis of individuals receiving radical surgery. CA19-9 is a biomarker for patient recurrence and survival, however obstructive jaundice has a significant impact on this index. Researchers have attempted to modify the index using various modification methods, but the results have been unsatisfactory. In this study, we adjusted CA19-9 values based on clinical stage and bilirubin and found that it provided better prediction than CA19-9 alone in assessing patients. MethodsWe analyzed over 5 years follow-up records of patients who underwent radical pancreatic cancer surgery between August 2009 and May 2017 in a single center. We investigated the association of risk factors with overall survival (OS) as well as disease-free survival (DFS) after surgery. Threshold values for high-risk features associated with poor prognosis in resectable pancreatic cancer were determined. The hazard ratios of the indicators were eventually examined under the stratification of patients' clinical stages. ResultsA total of 202 patients were involved in the study. The optimum cut-off values for CA19-9 and CA19-9/TB for predicting overall survival were 219.4 (p = 0.0075) and 18.8 (p = 0.0353), respectively. CA19-9>219.4 increased the risk of patient mortality by 1.70 times (95% CI 1.217-2.377, p = 0.002), and tumor poor differentiation raised the risk by 1.66 times (95% CI 1.083-2.553, P = 0.02). Based on clinical stage stratification, we found discrepancies in the predictive efficacy of CA19-9 and CA19-9/TB. CA19-9 was a better predictor in clinical stage 1 (HR = 2.056[CI 95%1.169-3.616], P = 0.012), whereas CA19-9/TB indications were better in stages 2 (HR = 1.650[CI 95%1.023-2.662], P = 0.040) and 3 (HR = 3.989[CI95%1.145-13.896], P = 0.030). ConclusionsCA19-9, CEA, and tumor differentiation are predictors for patients with resectable PDAC. CA19-9 values can be adjusted based on clinical stage and bilirubin levels to better predict overall survival in patients with resectable PDAC. CA19-9>219.4 predicted poor survival in individuals in clinical stage 1, whereas CA19-9/TB>18.8 predicted poor survival for individuals in stages 2 and 3.

Automated summary

This study adjusted CA19-9 values based on clinical stage and bilirubin levels to better predict the overall survival of patients who underwent radical pancreatic cancer surgery. The results showed that CA19-9>219.4 predicted poor survival in individuals in clinical stage 1, while CA19-9/TB>18.8 predicted poor survival for individuals in stages 2 and 3.