Development of onshore wind turbine fleet counteracts climate change-induced reduction in global capacity factor

There are some concerns that climate change and rapid wind development may lead to a reduction in the wind power capacity factor. Jung and Schindler show that wind turbine fleet evolution can overcome the potential climate change-induced capacity factor decrease. The capacity factor (cf) is a critical variable for quantifying wind turbine efficiency. Climate change-induced wind resource variations and technical wind turbine fleet development will alter future cfs. Here we define 12 techno-climatic change scenarios to assess regional and global onshore cfs in 2021-2060. Despite a decreasing global wind resource, we find an increase in future global cf caused by fleet development. The increase is significant under all evaluated techno-climatic scenarios. Under the likely emissions scenario Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5, global cf increases from 0.251 in 2021 up to 0.310 in 2035 under ambitious fleet development. This cf enhancement is equivalent to a 361 TWh yield improvement under the globally installed capacity of 2020 (698 GW). To increase the contribution of the future wind turbine fleet to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate protection goals, we recommend a rapid wind turbine fleet conversion.

Automated summary

There are concerns that climate change and rapid wind development could decrease wind power efficiency. However, with appropriate technological advancements and climate adaptation measures, the future wind power capacity factor may increase.