On the Influence of Antecedent Morphology on Development of Equilibrium Bathymetry in Estuaries Past and Future

Although analytical and numerical models have been widely used to explore evolution and equilibrium morphology in tidal environments, less attention has been paid to examining the impact of initial bathymetry on the model outcomes. Here we use two-dimensional idealized models with contrasting initial bathymetries to study how the interactions between antecedent morphology and tidal exchange processes determine the establishment of an estuarine equilibrium bathymetry, and how these interactions mediate the morphodynamic response to rising sea levels. In all model runs with sandy beds, inter-tidal zones reach the equilibrium condition first and equilibrium profiles are similar for points close to mean seal level. However, key aspects like channel formation, residence time and energy dissipation do not evolve to the same state and are inherited from the initial bathymetry. This implies that responses to sea-level rise (SLR) are different as well. Conversely, in cases with mud and sand input at the boundaries, equilibrium occurs more quickly and the equilibrium bathymetry and channel formation are dominated by the boundary mud concentration. General implications of the study are that predictions of coastal response to changes such as SLR depend on initial bathymetric conditions.

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This study examines the impact of initial bathymetry on the establishment of estuarine equilibrium and the response to sea-level rise. The findings highlight the importance of initial bathymetric conditions in predicting coastal response to changes such as sea-level rise.