期刊
SCIENTIFIC DATA
卷 9, 期 1, 页码 -出版社
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41597-022-01468-2
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资金
- United States Agency for International Development (USAID) [72DFFP19CA00001]
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Harvest Consortium [80NSSC18M0039]
- NASA [NNX16AM02G]
- Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) World Modelers Program under Army Research Office (ARO) [W911NF-18-1-0018]
- NASA [NNX16AM02G, 900293] Funding Source: Federal RePORTER
CHIRPS-GEFS is an operational data set that provides bias-corrected precipitation forecasts based on NCEP GEFS v12 model. By matching with CHIRPS data, it improves the accuracy of forecasts and is suitable for drought monitoring and early warning.
CHIRPS-GEFS is an operational data set that provides daily bias-corrected forecasts for next 1-day to similar to 15-day precipitation totals and anomalies at a quasi-global 50-deg N to 50-deg S extent and 0.05-degree resolution. These are based on National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 (GEFS v12) precipitation forecasts. CHIRPS-GEFS forecasts are compatible with Climate Hazards center InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data, which is actively used for drought monitoring, early warning, and near real-time impact assessments. A rankbased quantile matching procedure is used to transform GEFS v12 reforecast and real-time forecast ensemble means to CHIRPS spatial-temporal characteristics. Matching distributions to CHIRPS makes forecasts better reflect local climatology at finer spatial resolution and reduces moderate-to-large forecast errors. As shown in this study, having a CHIRPS-compatible version of the latest generation of NCEP GEFS forecasts enables rapid assessment of current forecasts and local historical context. CHIRPS-GEFS effectively bridges the gap between observations and weather predictions, increasing the value of both by connecting monitoring resources (CHIRPS) with interoperable forecasts.
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