Multi-Centennial Variability of Yangtze Delta Growth Over the Last 2000 Years: Interplay of Climate and People

Reconstruction of sediment accumulation in river deltas over the Holocene provides a basis for understanding the relationship between climate change, human activities and delta growth. However, variations in deposition rates on a centennial-scale over the last 2000 years remain poorly studied for mega-deltas. Based on optically stimulated luminescence and AMS C-14 ages, we calculated deposited sediment volumes in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) for 500-year intervals over the last two millennia for the first time. Our results reveal that the 2.0-1.5 and 0.5-0 ka periods had higher sediment deposition rates than in 1.5-1.0 and 1.0-0.5 ka, with maximum value about two times that of the minimum. A comparison with historical records of flooding and drought events indicates that a wetter climate led to a higher sediment deposition, reflecting the role of fluvial discharge in delta growth. However, the highest sediment deposition (205 +/- 29 x 10(6) m(3)/a) over the last 500 years is not only related to the wetter conditions of the Little Ice Age, but also linked to dramatic regional population growth. We suggest that human activities have predominated over natural forcing in determining the deltaic growth over the last five centuries. Taking the Medieval Climate Anomaly with the lowest deposition volume as an analog of current climate warming, and considering the decline in sediment loads due to recent damming and soil conservation, the YRD is likely to face an even more severe deficit in sediment supply and higher risk of delta destruction in the coming centuries.

Automated summary

The reconstruction of sediment accumulation in the Yangtze River Delta over the last two millennia reveals the influence of climate change and human activities on delta growth. Wetter conditions and increased human activities have contributed to higher sediment deposition and delta expansion. However, the current climate warming and human interventions in sediment supply pose a significant risk to the future survival of the delta.