期刊
SUSTAINABILITY
卷 14, 期 13, 页码 -出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/su14137762
关键词
gross domestic product; tourism; infrastructure; forecast; trend; tourism market; ARIMA; OLS (ordinary least squares)
资金
- University of Oradea within the Grant Competition Scientific Research of Excellence Related to Priority Areas with Capitalization through Technology Transfer: INO-TRANSFER-UO [329/2021, 317/2021]
The aim of this research is to assess the impact of factors such as welfare, infrastructure, security, and the environment on inbound tourism and develop a forecast. The results indicate that security and welfare significantly affect the inflow of foreign tourists, and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis are expected to persist beyond 2026.
The aim of the present research is to assess the impact of factors such as welfare, infrastructure, security, and the environment on inbound tourism as well as to develop its forecast. Six proxy indicators of the above-mentioned factors were selected as variables, namely, welfare (real GDP per capita, life expectancy, consumer price index), infrastructure (passenger transportation volume), security (total recorded crimes), and the environment (CO2 emissions). We used a time series-univariate ARIMA model to forecast the inbound tourism in the Republic of Uzbekistan, and applied the ARDL model to assess the impact of lagged real GDP per capita on inbound tourism in both the short and long terms. The results of our research show that security and welfare significantly affect the inflow of foreign tourists in the country, along with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, the effects of which are expected to persist beyond 2026.
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