Changing Climatic Scenarios Anticipate Dwindling of Suitable Habitats for Endemic Species of Himalaya-Predictions of Ensemble Modelling Using Aconitum heterophyllum as a Model Plant

In the changing climatic conditions, species distribution modelling is considered as a key strategy to estimate the probable influence of climatic variabilities on the habitat ranges of any species. The present study explores the potential distribution of Aconitum heterophyllum under current and future climatic scenarios. The results unfold that the distribution of this endemic species is governed significantly by bio12, i.e., Annual Precipitation. Ensemble modelling predicted that higher altitudes of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh are suitable habitats for A. heterophyllum. However, the future climatic modelling revealed that there will be a significant decrease in the suitable habitats for A. heterophyllum. Most of the shrinkage of habitats is predicted to occur within the time period of 2050, which seriously challenges their survival. The present study recommends an urgent need to frame a pertinent conservation and management policy for Aconitum heterophyllum and will act as a framework for planning such a policy.

Automated summary

In this study, species distribution modelling was used to explore the potential distribution of Aconitum heterophyllum under current and future climatic scenarios. The results showed that annual precipitation significantly influenced the distribution of this species. Future climatic modelling predicted a significant decrease in suitable habitats for A. heterophyllum, particularly before 2050.