In utero exposure to natural disasters and later-life mortality: Evidence from earthquakes in the early twentieth century

A growing body of research explores the effects of prenatal insults caused by natural disasters on life-cycle outcomes. This paper joins the literature by exploring the long-run effects of prenatal exposure to earthquakes on adulthood and old-age mortality. Using Social Security Administration death records (1975-2005) linked with the full-count 1940 US census and implementing a difference-in-difference methodology, I show that exposure during the first trimester is associated with 1.8 months lower longevity, conditional on survival up to age 34. This effect is equivalent to 22 percent of the white-nonwhite gap in the outcome. The results implicate the relevance of the in-utero period and specifically the onset of pregnancy for later-life health outcomes.

Automated summary

A growing body of research has explored the effects of prenatal insults caused by natural disasters on life-cycle outcomes. This paper contributes to the literature by examining the long-term effects of prenatal exposure to earthquakes on adult and old-age mortality. The results suggest that exposure during the first trimester is associated with a decrease in longevity, equivalent to 22 percent of the white-nonwhite gap in mortality rates. These findings highlight the importance of the in-utero period, especially the onset of pregnancy, for later-life health outcomes.