A retrospective study of mortality for perioperative cardiac arrests toward a personalized treatment

Perioperative cardiac arrest (POCA) is associated with a high mortality rate. This work aimed to study its prognostic factors for risk mitigation by means of care management and planning. A database of 380,919 surgeries was reviewed, and 150 POCAs were curated. The main outcome was mortality prior to hospital discharge. Patient demographic, medical history, and clinical characteristics (anesthesia and surgery) were the main features. Six machine learning (ML) algorithms, including LR, SVC, RF, GBM, AdaBoost, and VotingClassifier, were explored. The last algorithm was an ensemble of the first five algorithms. k-fold cross-validation and bootstrapping minimized the prediction bias and variance, respectively. Explainers (SHAP and LIME) were used to interpret the predictions. The ensemble provided the most accurate and robust predictions (AUC = 0.90 [95% CI, 0.78-0.98]) across various age groups. The risk factors were identified by order of importance. Surprisingly, the comorbidity of hypertension was found to have a protective effect on survival, which was reported by a recent study for the first time to our knowledge. The validated ensemble classifier in aid of the explainers improved the predictive differentiation, thereby deepening our understanding of POCA prognostication. It offers a holistic model-based approach for personalized anesthesia and surgical treatment.

Automated summary

This study aims to identify prognostic factors for perioperative cardiac arrest (POCA) and provide personalized anesthesia and surgical treatment. Machine learning algorithms were used to explore risk factors and provide accurate predictions. Surprisingly, co-morbidity of hypertension was found to have a protective effect on survival. The validated ensemble classifier improved the predictive differentiation and deepened our understanding of POCA prognosis.