期刊
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
卷 12, 期 7, 页码 655-+出版社
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01388-4
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资金
- Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Program (NESP)
- Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) programme area of the US Department of Energy's Office of Science [DE-AC02-05CH11231]
- G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation
Using reconstructed long-term proxy data and high-resolution climate model experiments, this study finds robust declining trends in the annual number of tropical cyclones (TCs) at global and regional scales during the twentieth century. These declining trends are consistent with the weakening of the Hadley and Walker circulations during the same period.
Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in the presence of large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection and attribution of tropical cyclone (TC) trends. Here, using a reconstructed long-term proxy of annual TC numbers together with high-resolution climate model experiments, we show robust declining trends in the annual number of TCs at global and regional scales during the twentieth century. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset is used for reconstruction because, compared with other reanalyses, it assimilates only sea-level pressure fields rather than utilize all available observations in the troposphere, making it less sensitive to temporal inhomogeneities in the observations. It can also capture TC signatures from the pre-satellite era reasonably well. The declining trends found are consistent with the twentieth century weakening of the Hadley and Walker circulations, which make conditions for TC formation less favourable. Detecting change in tropical cyclones is difficult from observational records. Here a reconstruction using reanalysis data of annual cyclone numbers shows they have declined globally and regionally over the twentieth century.
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