Impedance-based forecasting of lithium-ion battery performance amid uneven usage

Accurate forecasts of lithium-ion battery performance will ease concerns about the reliability of electric vehicles. Here, the authors leverage electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and machine learning to show that future capacity can be predicted amid uneven use, with no historical data requirement. Accurate forecasting of lithium-ion battery performance is essential for easing consumer concerns about the safety and reliability of electric vehicles. Most research on battery health prognostics focuses on the research and development setting where cells are subjected to the same usage patterns. However, in practical operation, there is great variability in use across cells and cycles, thus making forecasting challenging. To address this challenge, here we propose a combination of electrochemical impedance spectroscopy measurements with probabilistic machine learning methods. Making use of a dataset of 88 commercial lithium-ion coin cells generated via multistage charging and discharging (with currents randomly changed between cycles), we show that future discharge capacities can be predicted with calibrated uncertainties, given the future cycling protocol and a single electrochemical impedance spectroscopy measurement made immediately before charging, and without any knowledge of usage history. The results are robust to cell manufacturer, the distribution of cycling protocols, and temperature. The research outcome also suggests that battery health is better quantified by a multidimensional vector rather than a scalar state of health.

Automated summary

Accurate forecasting of lithium-ion battery performance using a combination of electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and machine learning is essential for addressing concerns about electric vehicle reliability. The research shows that future capacity can be predicted with calibrated uncertainties, even amid uneven use and without historical data. The study also suggests that quantifying battery health with a multidimensional vector is more effective than using a scalar state of health.