期刊
JOURNAL OF EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING
卷 20, 期 8, 页码 1322-1341出版社
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/13632469.2016.1138172
关键词
Seismic Risk; Scenario Loss Modeling; Epistemic Uncertainty; Seismic Vulnerability
The assessment of human or economic losses due to single events (scenario) may effectively support decision makers in the development of important risk mitigation actions. The study presented herein sheds light on several problems and limitations in the current practice of scenario loss modeling, such as: the number of simulations required to achieve convergence; epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the ground motion prediction and vulnerability models; and consideration of the earthquake rupture geometry. These issues are investigated using the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon (Portugal), and it has been observed that distinct assumptions in the loss modeling can lead to considerably different results. The findings of this study are also pertinent for probabilistic seismic risk analyses in which a large number of stochastically generated events are employed to assess probabilistic losses.
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