COVID-19 effects on property markets: The pandemic decreases the implicit price of metro accessibility

The metro (or underground railways) has become a backbone in the transit systems of many cities. It has numerous externalities, such as ameliorating traffic congestion and enhancing nearby property prices. Previous studies extensively focused on the relationship between metro accessibility and property prices and obtained various interesting findings and enriched practical implications. However, this relationship in the era of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and other epidemic shocks has not been investigated. Based on a unique property transaction dataset (including tens of thousands of transactions stretching from 2018 to 2020) in Chengdu, China, this study develops a battery of hedonic pricing models and difference-in-differences models to decipher the time-varying relationship between metro accessibility and residential property prices. The results show that the implicit price of metro accessibility modestly decreases in COVID-19, which can be explained by the declining role of the metro. In other words, the price gap between proximate and distant properties is narrowed, and the property price gradient is flattened. Specifically, the price elasticity of distance to the metro is -0.024 before COVID-19, but it turns to -0.018 during the pandemic. The relative price of properties within 500 m from metro stations to those farther away (500 m -3 km) decreases by 15.4% during the pandemic. Additionally, COVID-19 does not jeopardize property prices in Chengdu. Furthermore, the decrease in metro access premiums may be short-lived and only persisted for several months or years. The plausibility and robustness of the core findings have been confirmed through alternative treatment groups, alternative model specifications, and placebo tests.

Automated summary

Based on an analysis of property transaction data in Chengdu, this study finds that the implicit price of metro accessibility decreases during COVID-19, indicating a decline in the role of the metro and a smaller price gap between proximate and distant properties. However, COVID-19 does not have a negative impact on property prices in Chengdu, and the decrease in metro access premiums may be temporary.