The interaction of ice and law in Arctic marine accessibility

Sea ice levies an impost on maritime navigability in the Arctic, but ice cover diminution due to anthropogenic climate change is generating expectations for improved accessibility in coming decades. Projections of sea ice cover retreating preferentially from the eastern Arctic suggest key provisions of international law of the sea will require revision. Specifically, protections against marine pollution in ice-covered seas enshrined in Article 234 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea have been used in recent decades to extend jurisdictional competence over the Northern Sea Route only loosely associated with environmental outcomes. Projections show that plausible open water routes through international waters may be accessible by midcentury under all but the most aggressive of emissions control scenarios. While inter- and intraannual variability places the economic viability of these routes in question for some time, the inevitability of a seasonally ice-free Arctic will be attended by a reduction of regulatory friction and a recalibration of associated legal frameworks.

Automated summary

Sea ice in the Arctic has made maritime navigation difficult, but the reduction of ice cover due to climate change is expected to improve accessibility. Projections suggest that the retreat of sea ice from the eastern Arctic will require revisions to international maritime laws. Although the economic viability of open water routes in international waters is currently uncertain, it is predicted that these routes will become feasible by the midcentury, leading to a reduction in regulatory friction and a recalibration of legal frameworks.