Evolution of global development cooperation: An analysis of aid flows with hierarchical stochastic block models

Despite considerable scholarly attention on the institutional and normative aspects of development cooperation, its longitudinal dynamics unfolding at the global level have rarely been investigated. Focusing on aid, we examine the evolving global structure of development cooperation induced by aid flows in its entirety. Representing annual aid flows between donors and recipients from 1970 to 2013 as a series of networks, we apply hierarchical stochastic block models to extensive aid-flow data that cover not only the aid behavior of the major OECD donors but also that of other emerging donors, including China. Despite a considerable degree of external expansion and internal diversification of aid relations over the years, the analysis has uncovered a temporally persistent structure of aid networks. The latter comprises, on the one hand, a limited number of major donors with far-reaching resources and, on the other hand, a large number of mostly poor but globally well-connected recipients. The results cast doubt on the efficacy of recurrent efforts for aid reform in substantially changing the global aid flow pattern.

Automated summary

This study investigates the longitudinal dynamics of development cooperation at the global level, with a focus on aid flows. The analysis of aid data from 1970 to 2013 reveals a persistent structure of aid networks, consisting of a small number of major donors and a large number of globally connected recipients. This challenges the efficacy of aid reform efforts to substantially change the global aid flow pattern.