Safe reopening of university campuses is possible with COVID-19 vaccination

We construct an agent-based SEIR model to simulate COVID-19 spread at a 16000-student mostly non-residential urban university during the Fall 2021 Semester. We find that mRNA vaccine coverage at 100% combined with weekly screening testing of 25% of the campus population make it possible to safely reopen to in-person instruction. Our simulations exhibit a right-skew for total infections over the semester that becomes more pronounced with less vaccine coverage, less vaccine effectiveness and no additional preventative measures. This suggests that high levels of infection are not exceedingly rare with campus social connections the main transmission route. Finally, we find that if vaccine coverage is 100% and vaccine effectiveness is above 80%, then a safe reopening is possible even without facemask use. This models possible future scenarios with high coverage of additional booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines.

Automated summary

We constructed an agent-based SEIR model to simulate the spread of COVID-19 in a mostly non-residential urban university with 16,000 students during the Fall 2021 Semester. Our findings show that a combination of 100% mRNA vaccine coverage and weekly screening testing of 25% of the campus population enables a safe reopening for in-person instruction. The simulations indicate that the total infections over the semester exhibit a right-skew distribution, which becomes more pronounced with lower vaccine coverage, reduced vaccine effectiveness, and absence of additional preventative measures. Furthermore, the model reveals that a safe reopening is possible even without facemask use if vaccine coverage is 100% and vaccine effectiveness is above 80%. The model also explores potential future scenarios with high coverage of additional booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines.