Sub-aerial talik formation observed across the discontinuous permafrost zone of Alaska

Talik formation has long been acknowledged as an important mechanism of permafrost degradation. Currently, a lack of in situ observations has left a critical gap in our understanding of how ongoing climate change may influence future sub-aerial talik formation in areas unaffected by water bodies or wildfire. Here we present in situ ground temperature measurements from undisturbed sub-aerial sites across the discontinuous permafrost zone of Alaska between 1999 and 2020. We find that novel taliks formed at 24 sites across the region, with widespread initiation occurring during the winter of 2018 due to higher air temperatures and above-average snowfall insulating the soil. Future projections under a high emissions scenario show that by 2030, talik formation will initiate across up to 70% of the discontinuous permafrost zone, regardless of snow conditions. By 2090, talik in areas of black spruce forest, and warmer ecosystems, may reach a thickness of 12 m. The establishment of widespread sub-aerial taliks has major implications for permafrost thaw, thermokarst development, carbon cycling, hydrological connectivity and engineering. Temperature observations from across Alaska show widespread talik formation in the discontinuous permafrost zone due to higher air temperatures and above-average snowfall in recent years.

Automated summary

Talik formation, a significant mechanism of permafrost degradation, has been poorly understood due to the lack of in situ observations. This study presents ground temperature measurements from undisturbed sites in Alaska's discontinuous permafrost zone, revealing that novel taliks formed at multiple locations, primarily due to higher air temperatures and above-average snowfall. Future projections indicate that talik formation will become widespread, affecting up to 70% of the discontinuous permafrost zone by 2030, irrespective of snow conditions. By 2090, taliks in certain ecosystems may reach a thickness of 12 m. The establishment of widespread sub-aerial taliks has significant implications for permafrost thaw, hydrological connectivity, carbon cycling, and engineering.