Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past and future climate change

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet contains the vast majority of Earth'sglacier ice (about 52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past warm periods, synthesize current observations of change and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent notable mass loss during past warm periods are losing mass at present but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet over the twenty-first century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high-emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2 degrees Celsius is satisfied.

Automated summary

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet, which contains the majority of Earth's glacier ice, is considered less vulnerable to global warming compared to other ice sheets. However, recent mass loss in certain regions has prompted a re-evaluation of its sensitivity to climate change. While some marine-based catchments are currently losing mass, projections indicate increased accumulation in the East Antarctic Ice Sheet over the next century, maintaining overall balance. However, under high-emissions scenarios beyond 2100, significant ice discharge and sea-level rise could occur unless the Paris Agreement goals are met.