期刊
MONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY
卷 516, 期 4, 页码 5737-5761出版社
OXFORD UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1093/mnras/stac1677
关键词
gravitational waves; stars: evolution; (transients:) black hole - neutron star mergers
资金
- NSF
- NASA
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Gravitational Wave Discovery (OzGrav) [CE170100004]
- Prins Bernard Cultuurfonds
- Australian Research Council Future Fellowship [FT190100574]
- Danish National Research Foundation [DNRF132]
- Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) [639.042.728]
- European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme from the European Research Council (ERC) [715063]
- National Science Foundation [NSF 2009131]
- United States National Science Foundation (NSF)
- Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) of the United Kingdom
- Max-Planck-Society (MPS)
- State of Niedersachsen/Germany
- Australian Research Council
- French Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
- Italian Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN)
- Dutch Nikhef
- European Gravitational Observatory (EGO)
By considering the uncertainties in isolated binary evolution, we find that both stellar evolution and metallicity variations can significantly impact merger rates and mass distribution shapes. Different uncertainties have different effects on the merger rates and properties of BHBH, BHNS, and NSNS.
Making the most of the rapidly increasing population of gravitational-wave detections of black hole (BH) and neutron star (NS) mergers requires comparing observations with population synthesis predictions. In this work, we investigate the combined impact from the key uncertainties in population synthesis modelling of the isolated binary evolution channel: the physical processes in massive binary-star evolution and the star formation history as a function of metallicity, Z, and redshift z, S(Z,z). Considering these uncertainties, we create 560 different publicly available model realizations and calculate the rate and distribution characteristics of detectable BHBH, BHNS, and NSNS mergers. We find that our stellar evolution and S(Z,z) variations can combined impact the predicted intrinsic and detectable merger rates by factors in the range 10(2)-10(4). We find that BHBH rates are dominantly impacted by S(Z,z) variations, NSNS rates by stellar evolution variations and BHNS rates by both. We then consider the combined impact from all uncertainties considered in this work on the detectable mass distribution shapes (chirp mass, individual masses, and mass ratio). We find that the BHNS mass distributions are predominantly impacted by massive binary-star evolution changes. For BHBH and NSNS, we find that both uncertainties are important. We also find that the shape of the delay time and birth metallicity distributions are typically dominated by the choice of S(Z,z) for BHBH, BHNS, and NSNS. We identify several examples of robust features in the mass distributions predicted by all 560 models, such that we expect more than 95 per cent of BHBH detections to contain a BH greater than or similar to 8 M-circle dot and have mass ratios less than or similar to 4. Our work demonstrates that it is essential to consider a wide range of allowed models to study double compact object merger rates and properties. Conversely, larger observed samples could allow us to decipher currently unconstrained stages of stellar and binary evolution.
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