Combined Effects of Tropical Indo-Pacific-Atlantic SST Anomalies on Record-Breaking Floods over Central-North China in September 2021

The rainy season typically terminates over the area of central northern China (CNC) in late August with the rapid retreat of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). However, the CNC suffered continuous heavy rainfall in September 2021. The monthly accumulative precipitation amount broke its historical record since 1961 and caused severe floods. The present study ascribes this extreme rainfall event to the westward inland intrusion of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH). Both case study and statistical analysis indicate that westward extension of the WNPSH is significantly positively correlated with convection over the Maritime Continent (MC) and northern Indian Peninsula (NIP) under the influence of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). Atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments validate the individual and combined effects of SSTAs in the tropical Indo-Pacific-Atlantic Oceans on WNPSH and CNC rainfall. In particular, the warm SSTAs in the Indo-Pacific warm pool increase the probability of extremely westward extension of the WNPSH and above-normal rainfall over the CNC. The cold SSTAs in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific enlarge the zonal SSTA gradient, strengthen the anomalous convection over the MC and NIP, and intensify the WNPSH and CNC rainfall anomalies. Meanwhile, the warmer tropical Atlantic anchors the anomalous WNPSH and CNC rainfall in their observed positions. A statistical model based on the tropical SSTAs in August can skillfully predict the westward extension of the WNPSH in September 2021, suggesting that the combined effects of tropical Indo-Pacific-Atlantic SSTAs in late summer possibly tend to prolong rainy season of the EASM until early autumn.

Automated summary

This study attributes the continuous heavy rainfall in central northern China in September 2021 to the westward inland intrusion of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH). Both case study and statistical analysis indicate that sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the tropical Indo-Pacific-Atlantic Oceans significantly affect the westward extension of the WNPSH and rainfall in central northern China. Additionally, the warmer tropical Atlantic anchors the anomalous WNPSH and rainfall. A statistical model based on August tropical SSTAs can predict the westward extension of the WNPSH in September, suggesting that tropical Indo-Pacific-Atlantic SSTAs possibly prolong the rainy season of the East Asian summer monsoon.