Prediction of electric vehicle charging duration time using ensemble machine learning algorithm and Shapley additive explanations

Electric vehicles (EVs) are the most important components of smart transportation systems. Limited driving range, prolonged charging times, and inadequate charging infrastructure are the key barriers to EV adoption. To address the problem of prolonged charging time, the simple approach of developing a new charging station to enhance the charging capacity may not work due to the limitation of physical space and strain on power grids. Prediction of precise EV charging time can assist the drivers in effective planning of their trips to alleviate range anxiety during trips. Therefore, this study employed four different ensemble machine learning (EML) algorithms: random forest, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), categorical boosting, and light gradient boosting machine, for predicting EVs' charging time. The prediction experiments were based on 2 years of real-world charging event data from 500 EVs in Japan's private and commercial vehicles. The study emphasized predicting charging time for different charging modes, that is, normal and fast charging operations. The results indicate that EML models performed well under various scenarios, with the XGBoost model having the highest accuracy. Moreover, we also employ the newly developed Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) approach to tackle the non-interpretability issues of the ML algorithm by interpreting the XGBoost model outputs. The obtained SHAP value plots demonstrated the nonlinear relationship between explanatory variables and EV charging time.

Automated summary

Electric vehicles are crucial for smart transportation systems, but limited driving range, prolonged charging times, and inadequate charging infrastructure hinder their adoption. This study employed four different ensemble machine learning algorithms to predict the charging time of electric vehicles, with the XGBoost model achieving the highest accuracy. Additionally, the newly developed SHAP approach was used to interpret the outputs of the ML algorithm.