期刊
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
卷 28, 期 20, 页码 6033-6049出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16358
关键词
chilling; climate warming; forcing; future change; leaf unfolding; phenology
资金
- National Key R&D Program of China [2018YFA0606102]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41871032, 42125101]
- Chinese Academy of Sciences [2018070, 2018RC101]
Insufficient chilling caused by winter warming delays leaf-out date and offsets the advance caused by spring warming. The reduction in chilling could continuously offset the advance of leaf-out in future warming scenarios.
Winter temperature-related chilling and spring temperature-related forcing are two major environmental cues shaping the leaf-out date of temperate species. To what degree insufficient chilling caused by winter warming would slow phenological responses to spring warming remains unclear. Using 27,071 time series of leaf-out dates for 16 tree species in Europe, we constructed a phenological model based on the linear or exponential function between the chilling accumulation (CA) and forcing requirements (FR) of leaf-out. We further used the phenological model to quantify the relative contributions of chilling and forcing on past and future spring phenological change. The results showed that the delaying effect of decreased chilling on the leaf-out date was prevalent in natural conditions, as more than 99% of time series exhibited a negative relationship between CA and FR. The reduction in chilling linked to winter warming from 1951 to 2014 could offset about one half of the spring phenological advance caused by the increase in forcing. In future warming scenarios, if the same model is used and a linear, stable correlation between CA and FR is assumed, declining chilling will continuously offset the advance of leaf-out to a similar degree. Our study stresses the importance of assessing the antagonistic effects of winter and spring warming on leaf-out phenology.
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